The World Bank on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for the current fiscal by 4 percentage points to 6.3 per cent amid global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. In its previous estimate, the World Bank had projected India's growth at 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Gold prices surged Rs 2,200 to hit a fresh peak of Rs 116,200 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday buoyed by strong global cues as investors awaited key commentary from US Fed officials for policy direction. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had closed at Rs 1,14,000 per 10 grams on Friday.
The country's goods and services exports have crossed $820 billion in 2024-25, marking a nearly 6 per cent increase over the previous fiscal year despite global economic uncertainties, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday. The exports stood at $778 billion in 2023-24.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
As a protege of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to scale bilateral ties much higher. Trade and investment shall grow. People-to-people contacts shall be scaled up, points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
Fuelled by the global capability centre (GCC) boom, gross leasing of office space across top eight cities soared 5 per cent to touch 21.4 million square feet (msf) in the second quarter of calendar year 2025, according to Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 India Office Market report.
For FY26, the company has adopted a cautious outlook, anticipating domestic growth to broadly track the industry's low single-digit estimated growth amid ongoing economic headwinds.
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani on Monday said India is set to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of 2025, an assertion which came days after NITI CEO BVR Subrahmanyam claimed India has already overtaken Japan to reach that spot. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April had said that India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world with a GDP of $4.19 trillion in 2025, ahead of Japan.
Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
Dalal Street is buzzing with excitement, as some of the most-awaited IPOs are gearing up to hit the market. While some of these big companies are planning to join the stock exchanges towards the end of 2025, others are likely to be available for trading by the first half of 2026.
Recent developments - proposed changes to the goods and services tax (GST) rates and S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB, with a stable outlook, - may not be enough to bring foreign investors back to Indian markets in a rush, feel analysts.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection rose 12.6 per cent Y-o-Y to an all-time high of about Rs 2.37 lakh crore in April, which the government said shows resilience of the Indian economy and the effectiveness of cooperative federalism. The gross GST mop-up was Rs 2.10 lakh crore in April 2024 -- the second highest collection ever since GST was rolled out on July 1, 2017. The net mop-up was Rs 1.92 lakh crore.
With growing concerns over global economic growth and further cuts in earnings estimates, a recovery in markets is not expected before end-2009.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
Investor sentiment across Asian markets has shifted sharply in August, reveals the latest Bank of America (BofA) Fund Manager Survey, which found global growth expectations retreating after three months of improvement.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, saying elevated consumer confidence will drive spending, besides increased investments. In June update to its global economic outlook report, Fitch said it expects inflation to decline to 4.5 per cent by end of this year and RBI to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the hostilities between India and Pakistan heighten risks to the credit metrics of both countries, and any escalation in clashes would put downward pressure on sovereign credit support.
Indian manufacturing sector witnessed the fastest improvement in operating conditions in over 17 years in August, driven by an increased production efficiency and healthy demand conditions, a monthly report said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 59.1 in July to 59.3 in August, indicating the fastest improvement in operating conditions for 17-and-a-half years.
The central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike.
The rupee has held its ground against the US dollar in the 2025 calendar year so far, but depreciated significantly against the euro and pound. It fell by 6.83 per cent, and 5.44 per cent against the euro and pound respectively, as the two currencies strengthened significantly against the greenback during the period.
Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
Disappointing quarterly earnings numbers and revenue forecast from IT services company Wipro also weighed on investor sentiments. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 247.78 points or 0.38 per cent to settle at 65,629.24 points. During the day, it plunged 533.52 points or 0.80 per cent to 65,343.50 points.
Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tata Motors, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle and Maruti were also among the major laggards. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
India's top IT services firms delivered single-digit revenue growth in April-June, capping off a mixed, somewhat-sobering quarter as macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tensions weighed on global tech demand and delayed client decisionmaking. Management commentary painted a mixed picture, caution prevailed, yet industry CEOs also emphasised cost optimisation, vendor consolidation, and opportunities in AI makeovers.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Budget 2025 lays down a transformational roadmap for India's digital and economic future, focusing on AI-driven enterprise modernisation, workforce skilling, and sustainable innovation. With bold investments in AI, digital infrastructure, and ease of doing business, the government has set the stage for businesses to scale, innovate and compete on a global level.
The short-term inflation outlook for India is benign, and the expectation of a normal monsoon and moderating global prices of key imported items give credence to the projections made by the RBI and IMF, the Economic Survey said on Monday. However, to ensure long-term policy stability, the Survey 2023-24 suggested making focused efforts to increase the production of major oilseeds, expanding the area under pulses, and assess the progress in developing modern storage facilities for specific crops.
Large tariffs by the United States administration and elevated geopolitical risk have increased near-term global financial stability risks, and along with weather events pose downside risks to domestic growth, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in the foreword to the Financial Stability Report released on Monday.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
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